
Nowornever
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Everything posted by Nowornever
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Pity the tab form guide is a complete waste of time. I might have had a bet if I could spend the hours deciphering my way through the terrible layout.
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FFS it does not take much to hoodwink the stipes. It was off three wide and working hard from the 1000 and parked for the last 900m today as well. 😂 IDEAL CHEVRON - when questioned regarding the improved performance connections advised the gelding had benefited from an economical run throughout after having to work hard when racing in the parked position at its previous start.
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The more meetings the faster the horses go through the grades and get sold over seas. There will be a constant battle filling the fields to make the product inviting enough to bet. I used to bet quite a bit down south but recently it is just the same old horses running around in small fields which is a big turn off for me.
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Can Grimson pull off another miracle with kiwi horse.
Nowornever replied to Gammalite's topic in Trotting Chat
Probably this years New Zealand Cup winner. -
Don't hold your breath.
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Race 2 at Addington a prime example. They have no idea. A good pricer should be rated on how close their opening odds get to the closing odds.
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The odds have flattened overall. Not sure if it the bookmakers setting the odds or if it is more computer generated now, but if it is humans still doing it they have no confidence in their own ability as the opening odds are being kept very flat and by that I mean the spread is now an average of 2.00 to 41 on opening as compared to 1.80 to 101 a few years ago. They are trying to keep the whole middle market safe with a lot of horses way under the odds on opening. Those races with larger even fields they really have no idea sometimes and you can tell how badly they price a market by the amount of movement in the odds in the middle market from open to close. If there are a lot of movers in the market then they have priced it horribly wrong and there was value somewhere.
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I agree racing will suffer and sports will be propping them up. To make more profit you either increase turnover or cut expenses or ideally both. To cut expenses they will get rid of staff and get more automated but this will be detrimental to their service. They will be more active on restricting anyone that wins or even looks like they might be winning on fixed odds. To increase turnover they will hand out bonus bets like they are going out of fashion to newbies, losing punters and as incentives to join people up and start spending. They will probably start offering virtual racing or online casino type games at some stage. They keep promising exciting new bet types but have seen nothing yet to get me interested in spending more money. If they start offering first fives or first sixes then I might give them a go. Bringing back the pick six would also get me spending more.
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Very easy to run the bookmaking side from Aussie. Once the market is open the computers handle the trading side adjustments. Even a monkey could set the opening odds if they don't let people on for much until the liquidity builds up in the market. Pools already decreasing since Entain came on and turnover must be well down.
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Stipes running out of things to do, so lets ask some dumb questions. CAPTAIN KOBE - when questioned regarding the improved performance trainer S Dolan advised the gelding had appreciated a drop in calibre of horses from recent racing and had trained on well since its last start. Finished five lengths from the winner last start after working hard and today beats a much weaker field. Everybody including the public who made the horse a hot favourite could see why it won and it was not an improved performance it went slower today than it did the last start so in actual fact it was a worse performance.
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I agree tote pool down a huge % since the new website. Almost not worth betting on the exotics now.
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Been trouble for me all night. Website has almost been worse since Entain took over.
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The average punter sees 1 month vs 2 days for the same offense in the report. They don't even know Neil is an amateur how would they work out the inconsistency you just explained?
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And your thoughts on: Star Magic ran fifth and sixth previous two starts and was less than three lengths from the winner in both and was single figures on the tote. STAR MAGIC - when questioned regarding the improved performance trainer/driver G Smith advised the gelding had benefited from a brief freshen up after feeling the effects of recent racing and had been working well in preparation for today's race. Yet the second horse Lord Mudrick who was close to the rank outsider paying the same for a place as the win price for the winner and in its previous two starts had finished eight and ninth with losing margins of 11.5 len and 6.5len was never questioned. Even worse this horse had gone back in its last three starts from good draws but this time is driven out of the gate like a madman from a wide alley.
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While I am a rant at the Repressive Inconsistency Unit is this just another miserable attempt at a token ask the question on why did the horse improve or did they actually get the wrong horse. Star Magic ran fifth and sixth previous two starts and was less than three lengths from the winner in both and was single figures on the tote. STAR MAGIC - when questioned regarding the improved performance trainer/driver G Smith advised the gelding had benefited from a brief freshen up after feeling the effects of recent racing and had been working well in preparation for today's race. Yet the second horse Lord Mudrick who was close to the rank outsider paying the same for a place as the win price for the winner and in its previous two starts had finished eight and ninth with losing margins of 11.5 len and 6.5len was never questioned. Even worse this horse had gone back in its last three starts from good draws but this time is driven out of the gate like a madman from a wide alley. Once again no consistency for the punters.
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Neil Munro 7 Starts this year for 1 win and 1 third. Steve Trotter 11 starts this year for 1 third. Yet the penalties look obscene when you compare them. Thoughts?
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Occasionally the tips are ok but I always check the bigger price moves to see if it s a boys get paid or whale tip. If you don't like their selection then there is always value in something else because the market is skewed by the weight of money from the social media. I make more money backing against their tips than backing them. In fact I hope they tip something against one I like as the money on mine always blows out and you can get plenty on because the TAB is offsetting the risk and always takes your bet.
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Winter racing can be like that I have found. Either hot favourites and no value or complete blowouts who you couldn't pick. I just close down my betting June, July and August and wait for spring racing to start.
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Or both 😂
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An opinion can not be a misrepresentation or can it?
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Everything they said was factual even the opinion of the chances which going on the last three starts without knowing the quality of the fields it has been racing is quite believable. Like I said they do not know the ability of the horse they are commenting on, they only know the form which is 05955.
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Plenty of use to the TAB not for the punters. Use it to your advantage.
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Opened at 4s. The bookies might be AI generating the prices as well or they are just useless.
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Yeh the pub punter looking at that wouldn't touch it. Like I said might boost the multis and tote divs
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Yes they have been produced/written by someone who also does the same job for gallops and dog races so it is just generic text. They have probably never even heard of the horses and actually do not even care about the horses previous form. Actually a great move by bookmakers worldwide as it gives the punter not much of an idea and they make more money. I think it is great and gives someone who knows their stuff a much better chance of making money especially if you bet on the tote, where you only have to be better than the other mugs betting to make money.